A major new analysis has found that thousands more children in England could be safely supported to remain with their families, if councils and partner agencies intervene earlier and work more effectively together.
The report – From Prevention to Reconnection: Working Towards a Multi-Agency System that Keeps More Families Together – highlights the growing strain on children’s social care budgets across England’s largest county and rural authorities, while setting out a roadmap for reform.
Rising demand and spiralling costs
England’s 39 largest councils are facing what the report describes as “unprecedented pressure”. Since 2016, the number of children in care across county and rural unitary authorities has risen by 29%, while spending on placements has surged by 240%, climbing from £1.3bn to £3.2bn.
New modelling by Newton, commissioned by the County Councils Network (CCN) and the Society of County Treasurers (SCT), suggests the situation could deteriorate further without systemic change. By 2035, the number of children in care could approach 30,000, whilst annual placement costs alone could exceed £4.8bn.
In 2025, councils overspent their placement budgets by £550m, driven by rising demand and escalating costs. If this trend continues, cumulative overspending could reach £7.3bn over the next decade, forcing difficult decisions across other vital public services.
Missed opportunities for early support
The report draws on an extensive review of children’s journeys through the care system and uncovers significant missed opportunities for early intervention.
Key findings include:
- 40% of children entering care had no prior formal support from local authority safeguarding services
- Practitioners believed 70% of families could have received more effective support from at least one agency before a child entered care
- In nearly half of those cases, better support might have prevented entry into care altogether
Importantly, the report emphasises that entering care is not a failure. For many children, it remains the right and necessary decision. However, it argues there is clear scope to improve how and when support is delivered.
Five system-wide changes
To address these challenges, the report outlines five ambitious reforms aimed at strengthening prevention and family support:
- Enhanced services for parental mental health, domestic abuse and substance misuse
- Stronger integration between schools and family support partnerships
- Better data sharing and early identification of need
- Improved multi-agency coordination
- More targeted support to prevent escalation to crisis point
If implemented by 2028, these measures could deliver significant impact:
- A 15% reduction (2,250 children annually) in care entries
- 6,000 more parents accessing specialist support services
- Up to £4.7bn in avoided placement costs by 2035
However, even with reform, councils are not expected to return to balanced budgets until 2033, with a projected interim overspend of £2.7bn.
The report calls on central government to provide long-term funding stability for preventative services and accelerate reforms that enable better collaboration across agencies.
Cllr David Hitchiner, CCN's Children’s Services Spokesperson, said:
"Over the past decade, the care system in county areas has faced unprecedented pressure. The number of children care has increased by a third, while the cost of placements has more than doubled.
“Whilst councils have had little choice but to reduce early intervention and preventative services to fund skyrocketing placements costs, more opportunities to prevent children entering the care system in the first place still do exist.
“Without these system shifts being made, the analysis shows that the number of children in the care system in counties could reach30,000 by the middle of the next decade, with spending projected to reach nearly £5bn.
“Every child deserves the opportunity to grow up safely within their family network wherever possible. This report shows that by intervening earlier, supporting parents more effectively and improving how services work together, we can improve outcomes for children while helping create a more sustainable system.
"The findings provide a clear evidence base for national and local leaders seeking to shift children's services towards prevention, family support and long-term stability."
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