Councils warn SEND system faces ‘total collapse’ without urgent reform

The special educational needs and disabilities system in England is on course for total collapse, with councils warning of unimaginable deficits of £18 billion by the end of this Parliament unless urgent reforms are introduced.

A new report from the County Councils Network reveals that despite councils investing £30 billion more in SEND services over the past decade, educational outcomes have stagnated and family satisfaction has declined. The report warns that government delays to planned reforms are compounding difficulties for families and pushing councils to the financial brink.

Key findings include:

• EHCP demand surge: Education, Health and Care Plans have reached 638,000, projected to hit 840,000 by 2029 – a 32% rise in four years.
• Private school reliance: Placements up 165% since 2015, costing £72,000 per pupil compared to £10,000 in mainstream schools.
• Deficit crisis: SEND debt stood at £4bn in March 2025, projected to reach £17.8bn by 2029 – equivalent to £1,000 per child in England.
• Bankruptcy risk: 59 councils could go bankrupt overnight when the statutory override ends in 2028 if deficits are not wiped.
• Poor outcomes: GCSE attainment for pupils with EHCPs remains at 14%, unchanged since 2019, while Level 2 attainment at age 19 has fallen to 30% from 37% a decade ago.

Chair of the County Councils Network, Cllr Matthew Hicks, said:

“Last month’s delay to the Schools White Paper was massively disappointing not only for councils, but for families too. Time is of the essence: the government’s continuing inaction only compounds the difficult experiences for families, letting down thousands of young people whilst pushing councils to the financial brink. 

“As today’s research shows, the system is heading towards total collapse in little over four years. This could mean families facing even longer waits for support, councils facing a level of demand that the system was never designed for, and local authorities staring down unimaginable deficits of almost £18bn.

 “Now is the time to be bold and act decisively: government cannot keep ducking reform and ministers must use the delay to set out comprehensive and long-lasting change to the system.”

The CCN is calling for a two-pronged approach, which would see councils’ SEND deficits wiped, as well as complete reform.

Without structural change, councils will continue accruing £4.4bn in annual SEND debt by 2029, even if current deficits are cleared. The report warns that failure to act will leave thousands of young people without adequate support and councils unable to deliver essential services.

 

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