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Public sector job loss estimates too low

Public sector job losses are far worse than forecast, according to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD). Their researchers say that the total cuts on public sector staff will be 50% higher than predicted.

The number of jobs lost since April is five times larger than the figure that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projected for the whole year. Last June, the OBR made an initial forecast of the number of cuts necessary between 2010/11 and 2015/16 at 610,000 jobs. In November, they recalculated the job losses to a prediction of 410,000. The CIPD suggests that based on the current rate of cuts, the initial figure of 610,000 is the most accurate.

The CIPD is calling for the Government to slow down cuts, as the fragile economy must have time to recover. The Government has affirmed that it will maintain its current plans for deficit reduction.

A spokesman for the Treasury said: “Risks in the global economy make it even more essential to stick to the Government's essential deficit reduction plan, which is supported by the International Monetary Fund, the OECD and the CBI. This plan is essential for sustainable growth and has helped deliver record low interest rates for families."

The CIPD said: “Especially worrying is that public sector job losses in the second quarter of 2011 far exceeded net private sector job creation, which suggests that the slowdown in economic growth since the autumn of 2010 is gradually sapping the strength of those parts of the economy that were creating jobs in the initial part of the recovery.”

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